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We can't forecast accurately

By
Mukund Kabra

Forecasts miss when they are built from targets instead of from how the business actually behaves. Build the forecast from conversion rates, channel volumes and retention by cohort, and update it monthly against actuals.

Category:
Execution
Reading time:
2
min read
Published on:
October 24, 2026
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We can't forecast accurately

We can't forecast accurately

Problem

Every forecast turns out wrong, usually by a lot.

Numbers are set top-down from what the business needs, then the plan is built to match. When reality differs, nobody can say which assumption failed.

Hiring and spending decisions keep getting caught out.

Insight

A forecast is only as good as its assumptions, and they need checking.

Accurate forecasts are built from the bottom up: how many leads each channel brings, how many convert, how long customers stay. Each assumption can then be compared with what actually happens.

Updated monthly, the forecast gets more accurate over time.

How we approach it

We build forecasts you can trust and improve.

  1. We model your growth from channel volumes, conversion rates and retention by cohort.
  2. We document every assumption and its source.
  3. We compare forecast with actuals every month and correct what was off.

Your forecasts get closer each month, and so do the decisions built on them.

Tags:  
Growth Team Structure; Growth Roles; Team Design; cross-functional Teams; Accountability Systems; decision-making Process
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