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We don't know our true LTV

By
Mukund Kabra

Most LTV figures are averages based on assumptions. Calculate lifetime value from real cohort data, using margin instead of revenue, and split it by channel so you know what each customer type is worth.

Category:
Measurement
Reading time:
2
min read
Published on:
October 24, 2026
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Measurement
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We don't know our true LTV

We don't know our true LTV

Problem

Your LTV number came from a spreadsheet nobody has updated in a year.

It averages every customer together, counts revenue instead of margin, and assumes retention that may no longer be true. Yet it still decides how much you are willing to pay for a new customer.

If it is wrong, every acquisition target built on it is wrong too.

Insight

Lifetime value differs a lot by where customers come from.

Customers from referral, search and paid social often behave very differently: they buy more or less, and stay longer or shorter. An average hides all of that.

Real LTV is measured from what actual cohorts have spent, after costs, over time.

How we approach it

We calculate LTV from what customers actually did.

  1. We build cohorts by acquisition month and channel from your order or billing data.
  2. We measure their spend and margin over time and project it carefully forward.
  3. We set acquisition cost limits for each channel based on its real value.

You can spend more where customers are worth more, and stop overpaying where they are not.

Tags:  
Channel Attribution Clarity; cross-channel Reporting; Data Integration; Marketing Attribution; Growth Analytics; Performance Tracking
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